Find a way to believe that you will win

When building a startup, what is there to be confident in? You could start with the idea. Does it solve a real problem? Are the people with that problem willing to pay for a solution? There’s also your capability. Can you build this solution? Do you have the technical ability, the social skills, the experience, the network, and the grit?

A sufficiently down-to-earth person will, by default, convince themselves that the answer to at least one of these questions disqualifies them from succeeding in their venture. This is partly because down-to-earth people are rarely successful in anything grand. It’s partly because everything looks simultaneously harder and easier before you try it. And it’s partly because all good ideas sound like bad ideas until they come to fruition.

Every founder’s answers to at least a few of these questions are wrong, especially at first. But founders are wrong in different directions. Some are too confident, some too insecure, others a mix, depending on the area. The only way to be right in every domain necessary to succeed is to first be wrong, and then adjust your opinions as new information arises.

If it’s inevitable that you’ll live somewhere on the spectrum of delusion, you may as well make it work in your favour.

As a founder, you’ll probably fail. If this happens, it’ll probably be because you gave up. You lost faith in the problem, the market, the solution, your team, or yourself. All successful startups could have failed like this. They didn’t because the founders persisted—not by blindly continuing down stupid paths, but by pivoting until the problem, solution, market, and team finally made sense.

Until this happens, it’s better to believe it will. Even if your idea sucks, your network is useless, your code is busted, and you are out of your depth. That’s the only way you’ll make it past the great filter: your own perseverance.

If you’re working on something hard, the first step is to choose a path. The second is to convince yourself that it’s going to work, that you can’t fail, and that every other approach is insane, stupid, and immoral. The third step is to pivot disgracefully when you find a better way. That may sound foolish, but it is fools who win.

Richard Feynman said, “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool.” This may be true for scientists. But great startups are built by fools: people who’ve convinced themselves they’re on the right path, despite an incredible lack of evidence. Be the fool.

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