Rediscovering progress

Why it’s time to revive the Y2K spirit

We’re entering an exhilarating period of technological development, but most of us haven’t noticed. Grim expectations for the future pervade despite our progress towards solving many of our most worrying problems and overwhelming improvements to quality of life. Recently, we’ve seen tremendous progress in biotech, green technology, and artificial intelligence. We need to update our worldview to match today’s reality because returning to Y2K-era optimism is crucial for us to continue building technological momentum.

Supply may no longer be a problem for organ transplants and blood transfusions. Doctors have recently successfully transplanted genetically modified porcine hearts into humans¹, conducted blood transfusions with lab-grown blood², and engineered and implanted artificial bioreactor kidneys³.

A cure for cancer is finally within reach. New treatments have dramatically reduced the risk of death for various types of cancer⁴⁵, supply chain innovations are making treatments more accessible⁶, and mRNA technology used for SARS-COV-2 vaccines applies to vaccines for multiple types of cancer⁷.

Speaking of vaccines, mRNA vaccine technology has empowered us to develop vaccines against holy-grail viruses like Malaria and HIV, as well as left-field conditions like fentanyl⁸ and meth⁹ addiction.

Thanks to AI and synthetic antibiotics¹⁰¹¹¹², we may be on the cusp of solving antibiotic resistance, frequently touted as one of the most significant risks to humanity, with multiple solutions currently in testing.

Wearables and artificial intelligence enable new types of diagnosis and treatment. Smartwatches can diagnose Parkinson’s disease up to seven years before traditional diagnosis¹³, warn wearers of cardiac emergencies, and monitor your sleep to treat PTSD-triggered nightmares¹⁴. With AI, we can predict viruses’ infectivity and variant evolution¹⁵, empowering us to better respond to future pandemics.

There’s a lot more on the health and biology front. Semaglutide seems to be a silver bullet in the obesity epidemic (and may be an effective treatment for other types of addiction¹⁶); electronic bandages can quickly heal grievous wounds¹⁷; with new developments in Yamanaka factors¹⁸, we may even be on the cusp of reversing ageing in humans.

We’ve also made massive progress in the development of green technology. The price of solar modules has declined by 99.6% since 1976¹⁹, dramatically changing the economics of solar as a power source. New battery technology promises to deliver batteries, a crucial commodity for a carbon-neutral grid, without rare-earth minerals²⁰.

Desalination is now as cheap as US tap water²¹, a significant step towards solving our fresh water supply constraints. Continued progress here will enable incredibly ambitious desert greening projects. The Kubuqi Desert is already one-third re-greened²².

We have technology to manufacture emission-free steel²³, manufacture cement with 90% reduced emissions²⁴, and reduce air conditioning emissions by 60%²⁵. Companies are using the technology behind fracking for oil and gas to generate geothermal energy virtually anywhere — not just in places with natural reserves²⁶.

We finally have commercially viable carbon capture projects²⁷, and gene-edited trees promise to capture more carbon than their organic ancestors²⁸.

With modern semiconductor technology, we finally have nanotechnology and manufacturing²⁹. Transistors on Apple’s new iPhone are twelve atoms wide. Continued progress in semiconductor technology has enabled our recent AI revolution, dramatically making knowledge work, like programming, more effective. Soon, everyone with a smartphone will have access to a world-class doctor³⁰³¹, lawyer, therapist, and a previously unfathomable wealth of general knowledge.

Supersonic jets are coming back³². Truly wireless power transfer is a reality³³. We’re starting to understand the languages of whales, bats, and birds³⁴. We’re preparing to mine asteroids³⁵³⁶. We’re returning to the moon, and then we’ll be on Mars. There are ambitious plans to tap Yellowstone to harvest energy and stop a future volcanic eruption³⁷.

If you pay attention to the research, it’s undeniable that, despite our political problems, we’re in an era of technological acceleration. After years of stagnation, where information technology monopolised technological progress, we’re finally seeing progress in the physical world. And AI promises sustained digital progress. In the meantime, global poverty has continued to plummet. This improvement is primarily due to deploying and optimising existing technology, not new technology. The fact that, in an era of relative stagnation, we’ve managed to improve the well-being of vast swathes of humanity dramatically means we should be incredibly excited about what this new era of progress will bring.

But we are not excited. Most people seem to believe that the world is in decline. Surveys show that people generally think that global poverty and child mortality are worsening when both are improving. Americans are generally pessimistic about the future. Majorities believe living standards will decline over the following decades³⁸, the environment will deteriorate dramatically³⁹, and automation and AI will be a harmful force³⁹. Only three percent of Australians believe the world is getting better³⁸. Fifteen percent of non-parent Americans cite the state of the world and climate as reasons for not having children⁴⁰.

We weren’t always so pessimistic about progress, the future, and technology. But it has been a long time. Two decades ago, at the turn of the millennium, people were overwhelmingly optimistic about the future. Surveys show that despite a clear-eyed perspective on risks like epidemics, terrorism, natural disasters, and climate change, over 80% of Americans were optimistic about the future and attributed their optimism to technology⁴¹. In the Y2K era, virtually everyone valued technological innovation⁴² and economic development and anticipated a high-tech protopian future.

Attitudes changed after the tragedy of 9/11. By 2002, majorities in most nations felt the world was becoming a worse place and were unhappy with national conditions⁴³. By 2006, seventy percent of people expected quality of life to worsen or stagnate for the next generation of Americans⁴⁴. Global pessimism surged after 9/11⁴⁵, and the global financial crisis and climate change panic exacerbated the negativity. In the US, trust in government has plummeted since the new millennium⁴⁶, achieving new lows after COVID-19.

There is a cost to pessimism. Appreciation for our progress directly correlates with optimism for the future. People who obsess over the challenges of the last two decades tend to have negative outlooks for the future³⁸. For some, this can be motivating. For most, it’s incredibly demotivating. This motion is a vicious cycle: motivation is perhaps the most crucial resource in the face of legitimate challenges like climate change or the return of imperial conquest. So pessimism demotivates us, breeds inaction, and worsens the problems causing our pessimism. Add this to the fact that we’re unaware of the many areas where our pessimism is entirely misguided and that online and social media tend to trend towards the negative. You’ve got a global psychological funk that is tough to escape.

Anyone who has faced a seemingly insurmountable challenge in their personal life or career knows how difficult it can be to overcome a spiral of demotivation. It’s especially hard when much of what you hear from those around you, from friends to trusted institutions, is overwhelmingly negative. Much of the world is collectively going through this right now.

The new millennium promised us technological solutions to all of our problems. Instead, it gave us terrorism, war, a climate crisis, the worst recession since the Great Depression, and very little progress beyond the IT industry. Given the circumstances, it’s not surprising that our Y2K exuberance quickly fizzled. But it’s not 2008 anymore. We made it through those challenges, and most of the technologies we expected are now arriving. We even reduced global poverty and child mortality along the way. Undoubtedly, the 2020s and beyond will come with new challenges. But we need innovation, diplomacy, and strength to solve these problems. And innovation, diplomacy, and strength are all downstream from motivation and optimism.

Maybe our excitement at the start of this millennium was not unfounded but simply premature. The evidence shows that we’re finally starting to see the promises of the Y2K era. So, perhaps it’s time to return to Y2K-style optimism, too, lest we blow this opportunity for advancement.

Footnotes